Saturday, August 31, 2019

The Importance of Math Skills In Manufacturing

The importance of mathematical skills is extremely evident in the field of manufacturing. In many cases, Jobs in manufacturing revolve around math and the skills that come along with It. Often the success of manufactured products depend on the correctness of several different fields of math that are used in the processes that take place in a plant. The financial success of a manufacturer can also often depend on mathematical skills.Between the quality of products and their production prices and all that goes along with creating a product, math is the center piece of manufacturing. In manufacturing, the quality of the products produced Is one aspect that really depends upon math. This is because measurements taken must be precisely taken or the product may be defective. Also calculations of quantities of something needing to be made have to be exact.This Is where the amount of profit made depends on mathematical skills, because if too much or to little of something is made It will hur t the profits made by that specific good. Because of this, whoever Is In charge of quantity in production must be good with taking in previous data and estimating hat's needed. Often times skills with conversions are also required because of the diversity of measurements that could field, which is very common, one must have be knowledgeable with decimals, because often very small measurements are used along with the machines' preciseness.Throughout the field of manufacturing, mathematical knowledge is an essential skill to have. It is crucial to be good with numbers and measurements if one wants to succeed in manufacturing. This comes into play throughout the field of manufacturing, because math is used so often in so many different instances for many different reasons during the process of The quality of the products produced rests on the correct measurements and calculations of what needs to cut or aligned or whatever the the case is.The prices of these products also often depends on math, because the right amount of goods have to be estimated or the price can be drastically affected, which can in turn have large affects on profits of the manufacturer. Truly, math skills will either make or break someone in the field of manufacturing, because it is so important to most Jobs in the field.

Friday, August 30, 2019

AGs Seek Sex Offender Data from MySpace

The article â€Å"AGs Seek Sex Offender Data from MySpace†Ã‚   by Associated Press writer Samuel Spies, discussed recent events where law enforcement officials have taken measures to obtain names of registered sex offenders who are members of   the website MySpace.com.According to the article, attorney generals from eight states which include: Ohio, Mississippi,   North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Idaho, New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Georgia have requested that MySpace, which is used for social networking give them information on the number of registered sex offenders using MySpace and where those offenders reside.The attorney generals have also asked MySpace to inform them on the measures they have taken to remove sex offenders from their site and what they have done to caution MySpace members about sex offenders.   Some of the attorney generals feel that Myspace is the biggest networking site, thus MySpace should identify offenders who use their networking site to prey o n children.The article also discussed how MySpace has partnered with Sentinel Tech Holding Corp. to create a database of sex offenders, which has found that a large number of sex offenders are Myspace members.   MySpace has also begun using software that identifies and removes sex offenders from their site.MySpace officials also stated that; MySpace will send any identified sex offender’s information to the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children, who would then forward the information to law enforcement.   There have been numerous MySpace related crimes committed against children; therefore the attorney general of North Carolina wants to pass legislation, which makes it a felony for sex offenders to register on social networking sites.At the moment it is unknown whether MySpace is going to cooperate with the requests of the attorney generals.  ReferenceSpies, S. (May 14, 2007). AGs Seek Sex Offender Data from MySpace. Retrieved May 21,2007, from http://abcne ws.go.com/US/WireStory?id=3174533&page=1.

Thursday, August 29, 2019

Biography of Jean-Jacques Rousseau

Jean - Jacques Rousseau Man 's biography is free, he is everywhere. I think that he is the protagonist of others, but they are still bigger slaves. How this change is created. I do not know. How is it legal? I think that I can answer that question. (Rousseau, Jean-Jacques 1997) Jean-Jacques Rousseau was born in Geneva, Switzerland on June 25, 1712. Jean-Jacques Rousseau. French philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau (1712-1778) in the 18th century claimed that the children were not blank slabs filled with adult education. On the contrary, Rousseau (1762/1955) regards children as a noble asylum, and of course gives a congenital plan for good and evil, and orderly healthy growth. Unlike Locke, Rousseau thinks that internal morality of children and how to think and feel emotion of their own can only be hurt by adult training. He is a child-centered philosophy, adults should receive children's needs in four stages: infancy, childhood, late childhood and adolescence. John B. Watson and Jean-Ja cques Rousseau are often considered to provide the foundation of modern developmental psychology. In the mid-eighteenth century, Jean Jacques Rousseau described three developmental stages: Emile's baby (early childhood), pool (childhood) and adolescence: or education. Rousseau's idea was strongly responded to by the educators at the time. It usually focuses on how and why certain modifications through personal life cycle (cognition, society, intelligence, personality) and human growth change. There are many theorists who have contributed greatly to this field of psychology. For example, Erik Erikson has developed eight models of psychological developmental stages. He believes that humans grow in stages throughout their life and that it will influence their behavior (like Sigmund Freud) Biography of Jean-Jacques Rousseau Jean - Jacques Rousseau Man 's biography is free, he is everywhere. I think that he is the protagonist of others, but they are still bigger slaves. How this change is created. I do not know. How is it legal? I think that I can answer that question. (Rousseau, Jean-Jacques 1997) Jean-Jacques Rousseau was born in Geneva, Switzerland on June 25, 1712. Jean-Jacques Rousseau. French philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau (1712-1778) in the 18th century claimed that the children were not blank slabs filled with adult education. On the contrary, Rousseau (1762/1955) regards children as a noble asylum, and of course gives a congenital plan for good and evil, and orderly healthy growth. Unlike Locke, Rousseau thinks that internal morality of children and how to think and feel emotion of their own can only be hurt by adult training. He is a child-centered philosophy, adults should receive children's needs in four stages: infancy, childhood, late childhood and adolescence. John B. Watson and Jean-Ja cques Rousseau are often considered to provide the foundation of modern developmental psychology. In the mid-eighteenth century, Jean Jacques Rousseau described three developmental stages: Emile's baby (early childhood), pool (childhood) and adolescence: or education. Rousseau's idea was strongly responded to by the educators at the time. It usually focuses on how and why certain modifications through personal life cycle (cognition, society, intelligence, personality) and human growth change. There are many theorists who have contributed greatly to this field of psychology. For example, Erik Erikson has developed eight models of psychological developmental stages. He believes that humans grow in stages throughout their life and that it will influence their behavior (like Sigmund Freud)

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Legal Studies Term Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Legal Studies - Term Paper Example The act was construed to have said that removal even for a specified period of time was removal and not suspension. The difference in terminology was construed so as to differentiate between suspension and removal as the latter would mean remove and so automatic removal was not possible. This sort of interpretation has been said to be purposive as it looks at the overall effect and tends use aids to interpretation that is dictionaries and other materials so as to differentiate between the meanings of words. (Wesley 1998) The third consideration was avoidance of circularity. The courts stated that the refusal of automatic restoration by the court would avoid circularity but this is was by an action of the court which did not fit in well as it interfered with what had been intended. This consideration dealt with the literal rule as in discussing the straight forward notion and the golden rule whereby the absurdity in result that would be caused was discussed. (Wacks et al 1989) The fourth consideration was that of giving meaning and substance to each provision whereby the true meaning was considered and thus went against automatic removal of consideration. In this situation the court took into account both sides of the argument and determined the result in accordance with the golden rule that is to refrain from reaching an absurd result. (Partington 2010) Finally the consideration of reluctance of the court to find a radical change by way of side-wind was stated. Bokhary PJ looked into the wordings of the statute that is ss.21(1) and 25(3) and the context of two words and their differences were looked into and the courts in confining themselves to the literal approach in this respect rejected the notion that both the wordings were for the same purpose. (Wesley 1998) 2. Bokhary PJ states that these rules complement each other and tends to appreciate the facts that

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

How social media affect out personal behaviour Annotated Bibliography

How social media affect out personal behaviour - Annotated Bibliography Example The publication analyzes the effect of the information technology provides an opportunity to change peoples’ and organization’s decision-making behaviour. Groups and organizations also make use of technology to enhance their decision-making, especially through the social media. The technologies may have a positive or negative effect on the users regarding the effectiveness of the decisions made through the social media. For example, organization managers may make marketing changes, which in turn results to poor decisions by the consumers of their commodities. Over reliance on the social media rather than the employing the experts opinion and facts have the possibility of making biased decisions. The article gives an overview of the impact of the social media and the Web 2.0 on how organizations, individuals, and groups make decisions regarding their ventures. The authors interact with other published work by analyzing various impacts of the social media on decision-making and the consequences of using the information on the social networks. The other ideas related to social media, such as blogging, video sharing through the YouTube, and Skype among others enrich the authors’ information on the importance of the social media in decision-making. The main purpose of the publication is to educate and enlighten everybody, who views the internet on the importance of using the social sites for management reasons other than entertainment and socializing. The article clearly uses clear demonstrations to evaluate the importance of social media and several examples of the social media platform to enhance the clarity of the contents. The article is about psychological behaviours related to the social media published by Knowledge and Information Systems and addresses behaviours on the social media. The purpose of the article is to study the important world

Monday, August 26, 2019

Deep Origins of World War II Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 750 words

Deep Origins of World War II - Research Paper Example in on September 16 1939.1 Some of the factors in his favor included high tides, an enormous fleet of barges, powerful air force, availability of vessels, and a harvest full moon. The previous day the Nazi air force attempted to raid the colossal scale. The author claims that many German troops had assembled at the invasion port and their plan botched after Royal Air Force discovered their intentions quickly and they adopted a sustained offensive attack. Some of the Germans were using waterways while others used the railway. Royal Air Force damaged the railway a tactic that delayed the Germans coming for war while they dislocated the waterways as they sunk German ships at the harbor. Hitler had planned an attack on Britain since it was the only power in Europe that stood in his European conquest. Britain has earlier on declined to become an ally of the Germans. Robertson says that Hitler planned to eliminate Britain after France yielded to the Nazi invasion. Hitler assumed that Britai n would surrender and when the country did not he was surprised and he issues Directive Number 16.2 The operation was code named Operation Sea lion that had the objective of destroying English motherland and occupy it entirely. The German military agreed to defeat the Royal Air Force then to invade the country. German air force depended on the success of air battle before invading in the country. The head of military operations formulated a plan to destroy the Royal Air Force in four days. Other military strategy to invade Britain included locating the river craft so that they could train the troops in amphibious landing. They also planned to arrest the political elite that could present resistance such as Churchill. Viktor Survov was a former Russian Military Intelligence that published the Icebreaker.3 His thesis in the book argues that the soviet forces had well organization and they mobilized a Europe invasion as they prepared for defensive operations in their country. According to

Give Me a Low Five Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Give Me a Low Five - Research Paper Example Virtually any criminal crime one can think of will fall under one of these categories, and to understand their significance and role in criminal law, an ensuing in-depth examination of each will take place. Let us first explore crimes known as offenses. These acts of indiscretion, also known as infractions, carry the lowest degree of penalties, often issued in the form of tickets with relatively low fines. Minor violations in this category today are parking violations, jaywalking, speeding tickets, and littering, and about a millennia ago, when common law as we know it was in its early stages in England, trivial offenses in this category were handled by the English Court of Common Pleas − that handled petty cases on which the king did not want to waste his time (Baker, 2002). Itinerant judges traveling between towns would try such minor crimes at various circuits, hence the term, â€Å"common law.† Today, these lower crimes, usually called summary offenses, â€Å"are often tried at the lowest level of the judicial system, usually before a district magistrate or justice of the peace, and often use a streamlined procedure,† (Davenport, 2008, p. 9). If convicted, one ca n receive a prison sentence, usually under 90 days, and can expect to pay a fine, as well. Such cases are typically devoid of the safeguards – like a jury trial −extended to those charged with greater crimes, (Ibid.). ... Crimes falling under the banner of misdemeanor today include falsifying crime reports, driving under the influence, and disorderly conduct. Those convicted can be sentenced to up to a year in prison, but a penalty of a fine or probation is more likely (Ibid.). Misdemeanors are usually tried in local city or county courts with an arraignment charging the violator being scheduled within 15 days ? this is followed by a pre-trial hearing to set the case status; then a possible motions hearing to withhold physical evidence so that the case can be dismissed might be slated; and next is the trial, including jury selection and instructions, open statements, examination of witnesses, closing statements, and the verdict; while the last stage of being tried is usually the sentencing hearing, where fines (usually up to $5,000 and/or jail time up to one year) are issued (The Misdemeanor Criminal Process). Inchoate (or incomplete) crimes are offenses that have not yet been completed. Such crimes w ere traditionally considered misdemeanors, but today, they are viewed closer to felonies in severity and scope (Robinson, Gaeta, Majarian, Schultz, & Douglas, 2010). Back under common law centuries ago, the three subdivisions of inchoate crimes of conspiracy, attempt, and solicitation were devised in order to stem actual crimes before they came to fruition (Stevens, 2003). Conspiracy, the most publicized of the three, consists of an arrangement by one or more persons to commit a criminal act, where an obvious attempt to move forward in the crime has been witnessed. A person committing this offense may be tried in any county that is considered to be an element of the offense, and the doctrine of inchoate crimes must be applied during the trial, which calls for four things: 1)

Sunday, August 25, 2019

The Customer Analysis and Market Segmentation Essay

The Customer Analysis and Market Segmentation - Essay Example The study shows that producers need to create commodities on high demand thus, the need to make potential estimates. While marketing industrial grinding machinery, a marketer will have to make four decisions, which include; the pricing decisions, the product decisions, the placing decisions and the promotion decisions. Under the product decisions, the marketer will first have to decide on the quality, brand name, and functionality of the machinery. Depending on the potential estimates made and the potential customers being targeted, the standards set can be high or low. Marketers need to consider this because for instance; some brand names will appeal to some customers while to others they may not make any sense at all. The pricing decisions are highly critical since they determine the profit-making of the organization. The marketer should ensure that the price set is in accordance with the potential estimates made. Prices should not be exceptionally high since this may cause custome rs to shift to the competitors. In making this decision, marketers should evaluate the prices of other grinders in the market. The marketer also has to decide whether discounts will be issued on the machinery or not (Pride & Ferrell, 2011). Under the placing decisions, the marketer has to decide on the distribution of the grinding machinery. Depending on the potential estimates made concerning the market available, the marketer has to decide which places to distribute the product and which to be left idle. Transportation decisions also have to be considered, and the number of distribution channels. However, most distribution centers should be placed where a wide potential market has been identified. Promotion decisions include the various ways in which the marketer can market the product. Different marketers will use different strategies of marketing a product depending on its type. For instance, marketing grinding machinery would need a method such as personal selling to ensure tha t the customer is totally made aware of the product and its functioning. However, other methods of marketing such as advertising might leave some information about the product. 2) What is the relationship among market segmentation, target marketing, and positioning? What will happen to a company’s target marketing and positioning efforts if markets are incorrectly or not effectively/insightfully segmented? Market segmentation refers to the division of the customers of a product in different groups. Customers will mainly be divided depending on their needs, their characteristics and their financial ability. While segmenting the market, the marketer also has to consider the organization’s ability to satisfy all the segments and the competitive advantage of each segment. Other factors that have to be considered in evaluating the segmentation includes; the costs of the product and the sales estimates (Pride & Ferrell, 2011). Once the business has divided its market into di fferent segments, it then evaluates the potential gains of each market and then chooses which to concentrate on. This process is referred to as target marketing. The market chosen is then referred to as the target market.

Saturday, August 24, 2019

Next Generation Air Transport System Research Paper

Next Generation Air Transport System - Research Paper Example It is the responsibility of Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) to manage public-private partnership in order to make NextGen be in operation by 2025. National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) is given the responsibility of undertaking all the research required for implementation of this system. All these three organizations continue to face a number of challenges when moving forward with the NextGen Implementation. According to Dilligham (2007), FAA continues facing questions about its management expertise in relation to implementing NextGen system. NextGen is a comprehensive initiative that involves the development of new technology and leveraging the existing ones to better air transport and therefore enables it to handle the future expected demands (JPDO, 2012). According to Boehm-Davis (2008), this system is an example of active networking technology that updates itself with real-time shared information. It is tailored to the individual needs of all U.S. air crafts. This system if properly implemented will enhance safety, reduce delays, save fuel, and reduce aviation’s adverse environmental impact. According to JPDO (2011), this system will include satellite navigation and control of aircrafts, advanced digital communications, and enhanced connectivity between all components of national air transportation system. One of its key components is an automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) which is targeted to replace the radar dishes used by the current system. Other key components are digital non-voice communication, advanced networking, network-enabled, network-centric operation, and a layered adaptive security system (Boehm-Davis, 2008). These technological components will be implemented both on the ground and on air to assist both air traffic controllers and the pilots in air navigation.  

Friday, August 23, 2019

Gender and Sex in an African Society Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Gender and Sex in an African Society - Essay Example The invention of women demonstrates, on the contrary, that gender was not constructed in the old society of Yoruba, and that organizations in the society were determined by relative age. A meticulous epistemological and historical account of an African culture embracing its own terms, this book makes an argument that is persuasive based on the culturally dependent context that interprets social reality. It calls for a gender discourse preconception and categories on which such studies can rely. Moreover, the book bares the hidden assumptions in thoughts of different cultures. It is a truly comparative sociology of the Western tradition and African culture that will change the way gender and African studies proceed.  Oyewumi's analysis advances greatly into the postcolonial mapping of the European distinction that has been developing in the recent decades. It traces how Western visual privileging insures that biological determinism and social constructivism cannot be mutually exclus ive in cultures of the West. Gender categories were one kind of new tradition that European colonialists institutionalized in many African cultures including the Yoruba culture. Contemporary Western feminism has continued to extend their empire. Oyewumi enables the reader to envision what is hard to imagine within Western feminism world after gender. The book makes a huge contribution to not only feminism and African studies but also to philosophy, social theory and sociology in general. In Male daughters and female husbands.

Thursday, August 22, 2019

The Michelin Man Essay Example for Free

The Michelin Man Essay The Michelin Man goes to show that Michelin tires are either longer lasting than other brands or it can mean that you as a consumer get to grow old literally because all this time, you were able to avoid accidents using the said brand of tires. The Michelin man can also mean that given the demographics of America’s population, wherein the dominant age bracket belongs to the ages between 18 years old and over, constituting 227,719,000 as of 2007. Looking at Michelin USA’s present website, Â  one can get an exact answer with regards to the evolution of the Michelin Man, the website states that the Michelin Man was evolving given the period and current tire innovations so as to always remain in phase with his time. The slogan on the other hand, is pretty much timeless, so there seems to be no need, in the part of the company, to change it. The 2009 BMW M3 has been issued a recall last November 14, 2008 specifically the ones with an optional double clutch transmission. The problem occurs when the vehicle enters a situation of rapid vehicle deceleration; the transmission software has a chance of performing a multistage downshift, causing the engine to stall and increases the risk of a crash. The proposed solution will be the reprogramming of the engine and transmission electronic control unit with updates on the software, free of charge. I am not aware of this recall, due to the fact that it was not pretty much made as public as other problems, but if given the resources, and the fix can be done in a short amount of time, I will still get myself a 2009 M3 because I myself know for a fact that BMW is fast in fixing vehicles that suffer recalls, plus the BMW brand seldom suffers long lasting problems due to their dedication in giving the best to their customers. Bibliography Michelin USA. The Michelin Man: the living tire. Michelin. Retrieved March 23, 2009, from http://www.michelin.com/corporate/front/templates/affich.jsp?codeRubrique=99lang=EN United States Census. Resident population by age and sex: 1980 to 2007. Census. Retrieved March 23, 2009, from http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/tables/09s0007.pdf Motor Trend. 2009 BMW M3 recalls. Motor Trend. Retrieved March 23, 2009, from http://www.motortrend.com/cars/2009/bmw/m3/recalls/index.html

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Bridging Academic and Career Competencies Essay Example for Free

Bridging Academic and Career Competencies Essay The university learning goals are essential skills that hiring managers look for when reviewing applications. Knowing how to incorporate the learning goals into your career competencies can help you in the application and career-search process. Fill in the following table with 100-word summaries of how each university learning goal can help you with career preparedness. University learning goal How each goal prepares you for success in the workplace Professional Competence and Values Professional Competence and Values prepares me for success in the workplace by giving me the classes that I need to be successful in a future career and my personal life. The university providing these courses, which give the skills and knowledge necessary to be successful, is helpful to me since I am not being put into classes that I have nothing to do with my career field. This goal also encourages lifelong learning, which encourages me to take more classes once I graduate from my current program and strive to learn more when I enter my career field post-graduation. Critical Thinking and Problem Solving Critical thinking and Problem Solving prepares me for success in the workplace by giving me the skills to be better with how I think about and address problems. While in the workplace, this will help me and has helped me so far to take my thoughts from just a yes or no answer, to answers that I have reflected on more. This goal will also help give me the skills to come up with a more reasoned and detailed solution when solving a problem. With that knowledge, I can explain to my employer the solution I chose for a problem and why I chose it. Communication Communication helps me prepare for success in the workplace by giving me the knowledge I need to be a better formal communicator. Learning how to better use grammar, punctuation, and tone in how I write will help when I need to  send memos to colleagues in my career field. Having that information will help me better communicate to them professionally, and not how I would talk to my friends on a daily basis. Communication will also help with how I present my ideas to others, so that they are easy to understand and respectful of colleagues both in the tone and words that I use. Information Utilization Information Utilization helps me prepare for success in the workplace by helping me to improve my research skills and how I use the information that I find. Having classes where I have to locate answers using the research skills that I already have, causes me to better refine what I am already doing so that when I enter a career field, I will not need assistance if I am looking for information that I may need. This goal also will help me to use the proper information, so that whatever I am working on can be right the first time and negate the need to have to go back and research again. Collaboration Collaboration helps me prepare for success in the workplace by allowing me to work in groups with other students on projects. Collaborating will give the ability to hear and see things from multiple points of view that I do not possess, something that will help me when I get to a career. Collaboration will help me with the ability to trust team members, and not be quick to judge or try to do things on my own, as in my chosen career field, that is not something I will be able to do, and will have to work with others on solutions.

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Fashion Essays Fashion and Hugo Boss

Fashion Essays Fashion and Hugo Boss Fashion and Hugo Boss Hugo Boss â€Å"Fashion is a uniquely sensuous, dynamic and international phenomenon, and HUGO BOSS holds a leading position in this fascinating market. The exceptional personal commitment and standout achievements of our employees form the cornerstones of our success.† (Dr. Bruno Sà ¤lzer, Chair of the Managing Board, HUGO BOSS AG). Hugo Boss AG is a fashion house based in Metzingen, Germany, specializes in high-end apparel. It is named after its founder, Hugo Boss. Hugo Boss has been successfully asserting and expanding its position as a global market leader in the upscale fashion market for many years. The HUGO BOSS brands encompass all key fashion areas, ranging from classic clothing, evening and leisurewear to functional sportswear and complementary accessories. Licensed products such as eyewear, watches, fragrances and cosmetics further enhance our collections. HUGO BOSS is represented in the fashion market by the BOSS, HUGO and BALDESSARINI brands. HUGO BOSS products are available worldwide in over 100 countries. HUGO BOSS the name denotes success, perfection and a style that transcends international borders. Its primary competitors are Gianni Versace, Armani and Gucci in the fashion retail sector. The BOSS and HUGO brands cover all the major fashion segments for men and women. Additional product groups such as shoes and accessories, fragrances, eyewear, and watches complement the individual collections. The target audiences mainly catered to by HUGO BOSS are individuals ranging between the age groups of 20-60 years. Largely, its customers are the young and the professional working class. The marketing channels used are the seasonally changing advertising strategies, business through the internet, public relations and various sales promotion schemes. Products HUGO BOSS is represented in the fashion market by the BOSS and HUGO brands. These brand collections and their fashion lines are aimed at various target groups, creating a brand world of extraordinary fashion diversity at a constantly high level of quality. The BOSS Black, BOSS Selection, BOSS Orange and BOSS Green lines as well as the accompanying accessory collections are all part of the core BOSS brand. BOSS Black The women’s collections in the BOSS Black line offer versatile fashion ranges with a rich array of elegant â€Å"modern classics† in business-, leisure- and formalwear: perfect looks that satisfy the most sophisticated tastes. BOSS Orange BOSS Orange offers casual collections for women who enjoy dressing in style and wearing surprising looks. Unusual materials, bold colors and beautiful details appeal to a clientele that delights in experimentation. HUGO HUGO delivers innovative looks for women with a young, upbeat attitude. The collections feature body-hugging silhouettes and up-to-the-minute styles. Accessories For the past several years, a broad selection of innovative lifestyle products has complemented the HUGO BOSS fashions. The segment Shoes Accessories has featured most prominently and represents considerable growth potential for the company. This product group was therefore integrated into the Group in 2004 and has been progressively expanded since. Micro-Environment Micro-environment denotes those elements over which the marketing firm has control or which it can use in order to gain information that will better help it in its marketing operations. In other words, these are elements that can be manipulated, or used to glean information, in order to provide fuller satisfaction to the company’s customers. P’S of Marketing Product For men include: Boss Black/Boss Black Selection, Boss Green, Boss Orange, Hugo, and Baldessarini. For women: Boss Black, Boss Orange and Hugo. Also part of the brand is Lifestyle Accessories. (As explained above ) Price The price that a customer pays varies for each type of their product. Their target market constitutes are people between the age of 20 and 60, i.e. for the young, professional and working class. The price of the products of an industry are determined by a number of factors including market share, competition, market costs, product identity and also the customer’s perceived value of product. Place Place comprises of two distinct elements: channels of distribution and transportation of goods. HUGO BOSS sells its products are various stores and outlets. It has various retail outlets. It also has logistics that relates to the physical warehousing and transportation of goods from various places. It is well organized and effectively working. Promotion HUGO BOSS promotes itself by advertising their products via Media, i.e. TV, newspapers, banners, internet, etc. Also, sponsorship, product placement, endorsements, direct mail, trade shows, etc help them to promote their brand efficiently in the market. It is also engaged in charitable work. Macro Environment Macro-environment refers to the surroundings in the market which are unavoidable and need to be adjusted with than manipulate them. It is essential to study these factors that affect the business techniques followed by the organization. Knowing these factors is very important; once exploited, they may prove to be very beneficial to the firm. Pest Analysis Political and Legal Factors Hugo Boss is involved in international operations. Thus, it faces the domestic as well as the international political concerns. They export and have joint ventures and subsidiary companies abroad. The political and legal factors in various countries differ a lot. Hugo Boss has to take in consideration all these factors since its products are available in over 100 countries. Special attention needs to be given to volatile conditions so that the political conditions are monitored very carefully. Government policy can severely affect the financial results of the business. For instance the aggressive US fiscal policy driven in art by the invasion of Iraq has caused the US dollar to depreciate against other currencies such as the EUR or GBP. Economic Factors Economic factors are of concern to HUGO BOSS because they are likely to influence, among other things, demand, costs, prices and profits. These factors are largely outside the control of the individual firm, but their effects on individual enterprises can be profound. Political and economic factors are often strongly related. Since HUGO BOSS is engaged in international marketing, changes in world economic forces are potentially highly significant. The rate of inflation, unemployment and the level of domestic interest rates affect the return from new investments and can inhibit the adoption and diffusion of new technologies. Economic changes pose a set of opportunities and threats, this it is very important that HUGO BOSS monitors the economic environment at both domestic and world levels. Social and Cultural Factors It is very important for HUGO BOSS to manifest itself in changing tastes, purchasing behavior and c hanging priorities. The type of goods and services demanded by the consumers is a function of their social conditioning and their consequent attitudes and beliefs. Social changes are preceded by changes over time in a society’s cultural values. The weather changes are also another factor to be taken care of. Every time the weather of a country changes they need to change their products. Consumers need different trends and styles. They do not need want to wear the same styles every time. The lifestyle trend changes to an extent every time. HUGO BOSS also has an outstanding advertising. All this helps them create the effectiveness of their products etc. Technological Factors HUGO BOSS plays an important part in technological progress. They have their own research department which plays a part in innovating new developments and new applications. A change in the technological environment affects the products and services that the firm produces and the way in which the firms carry out their business operations. There is a very important need to have technological improvements in the business in today’s world. The design of the collections and the development of groundbreaking production technologies both occur at corporate headquarters in Metzingen. There, for each of the year’s four seasons, their creative teams design the fashions that capture the contemporary zeitgeist. Swot Analysis SWOT analysis refers to the Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats that a company evaluates in itself as well as from the market which it is trying to capture. With this knowledge, the internal and external factors of the firm can be easily analyzed and worked upon to improve the growth and market share of the firm. Strengths and Weaknesses form the internal factors and Opportunities and Threats form the external factors that influence the marketing activities of an organization. Strengths The strengths that a company represents the competitive advantage that it has over the other firms it’s competing with. HUGO BOSS has a very good reputation, resulting in a high market share, making it the biggest retailer on the high streets. A good repute brings a high consciousness of the brand name in the minds of almost every potential consumer. Its diversity and variety in the product offerings, furnishing to everyone’s needs whether man or woman, and middle aged customers has added on to being one of its strengths and reasons for loyalty in the marketplace. Weaknesses Weaknesses often discourage employees in a corporation, but identifying them is necessary in order to overcome them to re-enter the market. A company’s weaknesses are not just the problems from the firm’s point of view, but also from the consumer’s point of view. These limitations slow down the progress of the company when compared to its competitors. Some of HUGO and BOSS’ inabilities are keeping up with the changing trends in the retail market. Sometimes their incapability to target the right customers in terms of product range and potentiality also hinder the growth of the company. Opportunities Opportunities refer to the upcoming trends or social, economical or technological patterns that can be exploited to increase market share and customer loyalty. Since the age group targeted by HUGO BOSS is till the age of 60 years, more number of old people should be targeted as prospective customers. Collaboration with other companies to increase product breadth and depth, with more celebrity patronage is a sure opportunity that should be taken advantage of. Buying competitors who could pose a threat in the future is also a possibility that HUGO BOSS can utilize to keep up its market share. Threats Threats are the inevitable situations that might arise, which the company needs to handle tactfully. These are external factors that cannot be controlled by the company. Changing trends in fashion and economic and technological advances are some of the threats that all fashion industries face, including HUGO BOSS. The varying structures in the market, mostly in the younger clothing markets also are threats to retailers. Conclusion In 1987, Boss Orange for men was launched described as sporty and casual separating itself from the trendy Hugo brand and the sophisticated Boss Black brand. Boss Green is a completely sporty brand selling items designed for sport or a sporty look. The companys products, divided over three brands, are available throughout the world in 103 countries and more than 5,002 retail stores. These brands are Boss, Hugo, and since 2004, Baldessarini. The latter, Baldessarini GmbH, is a more independent business unit which focuses on a more prestigious image than its two sister brands. It sells, like the other Hugo Boss brands, clothing, shoes, fragrances and accessories but will leave Hugo Boss after the Spring/Summer 2007 collection has been sent to boutiques. This is due to the newly launched premium Boss line, Boss Black Selection, outselling Baldessarini. Todays sub-brands for men include: Boss Black/Boss Black Selection, Boss Green, Boss Orange, Hugo, and Baldessarini. For women: Boss Black, Boss Orange (announced in July 2005 for Spring/Summer 2006 launch) and Hugo. Also part of the brand is Lifestyle Accessories. With an analysis on the various factors affecting the firm along with its strengths and opportunities as internal factors and weaknesses and threats as external factors, there is a clear understanding on the position and market segment HUGO BOSS covers and satisfies. Its strengths and weaknesses along with its PEST factors, the behavior of the organization towards these aspects in the marketing field, are also identified. References 1) Kotler, P. (1996) ‘The Principles of Marketing’, Second European Edition, Prentice Hall 2) Marketing (2002) : ‘Dont let medias search for a story cloud the business issues.’ Vol 3, p. 16 3) www.hugoboss.com (as viewed on 10/12/07) 4) http://66.102.9.104/search?q=cache:jwO826q-jWgJ:monikgupta.net/bsc/MarketingReport.pdf+Hugo+Boss+SWOThl=enct=clnkcd=9gl=uk (as viewed on 10/12/07) 5) http://www.coursework4you.co.uk/swot.htm (as viewed on 11/12/07)

Monday, August 19, 2019

Critique of Dress Smart Men by Kim Johnson Gross and Jeff Stone :: Literature Review

II. Summary of Major Ideas Kim Johnson Gross and Jeff Stone, in their book Dress Smart Men, layout their view on how men should dress for success in the business world. The book details how to dress at three stages in your career: getting a job, succeeding in your job, and obtaining a better job. Although Dress Smart Men is laid out in these three sections, the authors discuss their dress philosophy throughout the book. One important point they make is that it is important to dress well because others will judge you, consciously and subconsciously, based on how you dress. Your wardrobe is a tool that you must use effectively to advance in your career. You must examine how you dress, eliminate items that you do not wear, and stock your closet wisely. The authors state that your goal should be style, which is timeless, as opposed to fashion, which changes frequently. Your clothing choices should emphasize quality over quantity; however, you do not need to spend an extravagant amount of money to look professiona l. Your wardrobe should also be versatile, giving you the ability to mix and match outfits. As you get higher in position, you should buy higher quality clothing. If you choose your clothing wisely it will enhance and further your business career. III. Critical Evaluation of Work Gross and Stone have laid out a very conservative philosophy of dress. They believe that you should wear what has become the established style of dress in the business environment. Many today refuse to follow standards that were held in previous generations. According to the humanistic worldview, there are no absolutes. Each person decides for themselves what is right and wrong. Believing in humanism will greatly affect how a person lives his life, and this effect is especially apparent in one’s dress standard. As Christians, we understand that absolutes do exist, and we should realize the importance of standards. By advocating conservative standards in this book, Gross and Stone reject the philosophy of relativistic humanism. Although Gross and Stone have a good philosophy of dress, they seem to place too high an importance on clothing. Although they claim that you do not necessarily need to spend a lot of money to dress professionally, they later state that â€Å"becoming more successful...doesn’t really allow for $200 suits anymore.† (111) While it is important to dress well, I disagree that you need to buy the most expensive clothing to further your career.

Germany: The New Battle :: European Europe History

Germany: The New Battle Thesis: This paper will argue that Germany needs to secure itself as both the economic and political hegemon of Europe inside of the European Union; until its present condition and effectiveness in the global politics changes, instability in the European Union, as well as, basic fear of will always be present. I. Introduction II. Historical Perspective-The two negative factors A. Fear - twice in one century 1) Bismarck/Frederick II 2) Hitler B. Foolishness 1) WWI 2) WWII III. Reunification - The Key A. Economic realities 1) E. Germany's status 2) Infrastructure B. The significance of one Germany 1) Future 2) Politics IV. European Union-The means to and end A. European "check and balance system" 1) Hope for the future 2) Provisions for success B. The answer to a disturbing question 1) Can Germany be strong and peaceful? 2) France and England V. Conclusion The formation of a state can be both a beautiful and terrifying event . As a national you now have a home and place to live with people of a common culture and heritage, an identity. If you are a founder of the new state, there would be a sense of accomplishment of having achieved the fulfillment of a lifetime goal. Other states which deemed this new state as legitimate and recognized it as a self-determined equal, have created a potential ally or enemy. The downside, the premature recognition and the actual struggle for that status, usually entails conflict, loss of life, revolution and even war. A state was formed and recognized in 1871 in the center of Europe. This event has had an enormous impact since its inception. It has been both the salvation of Europe through economic depressions and hard times, as well as, the cause for two world wars and the near decimation of Europe. Its people have been back and forth between rags and riches, democracy and dictatorships, united, broken and then reunited. This state is known as Germany. Modern Germany has been reunified after almost 50 years of separation during the cold war. Once again German power and influence is on the rise. The world watches because Germany has not been able to successfully retain both total sovereignty over its territory and be an economic world power, for a substantial period of time; without plunging the world into an unavoidable conflict. The question of Germany and its position in world politics is one which has plagued statesmen since Germany's formation.

Sunday, August 18, 2019

Acid Precipitation Essay -- essays research papers

  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Sitting in your room late at night, you listen to the gentle pittter-patter of the rain on your window. Ahh, so soothing and relaxing. Have you ever really wondered what the rain is really made of? Is that just water or is it acid slowly streaming down out there? That rain you hear just might be acid rain, it could change the way you live your life.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  The commonly used terms â€Å"acid rain† and â€Å"acid precipitation† describe specific forms of a type of pollution described generally as â€Å"acid deposition.† Harmful gases that rise into the air mix with cloud moisture, sunlight, and oxidants. There they chemically combine into dilute sulfuric and nitric acids, which fall back to the earth. This is acid deposition. The major contributing pollutants are sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide (Morgan, 5). â€Å"Acid rain† is basically rainwater with a pH level lower than 5.6 (Morgan, 3). The term pH means â€Å"potential hydrogen†. When a substance has a pH level of 7, it is completely neutral with the same number of hydroxyl and hydrogen ions (Pringle, 6). Acidity in the atmosphere can be changed by many natural things. When a volcano erupts, sulfur dioxide is spewed out. Droughts produce unusually dry soil conditions allowing dust particles to be carried upward into the air, neutralizing the acids that may be present at the time (Pringle, 4). Acid Rain can come in concentrations sometimes more acidic than lemon juice. These pollutants reach the earth in rain, snow, hail, sleet, or fog. The rain at the beginning of a shower is usually more acidic than the rain that follows. Dry acidic particles can also fall from the atmosphere. Because wind can carry gases and moisture for hundreds of miles, even areas far away from the source bear the effects of acid deposition (Durha m, 10). There are of course, many things that we as humans do everyday to promote and support the continuation of acid rain. Not intentionally, of course. When the fossil fuel, (i.e. coal) is used, the sulfur in it mixes with Oxygen in the air to form sulfur dioxide. The sulfur dioxide is eventually turned into acid over a matter of days. Coal-fired power plants are the single greatest cause of acid rain in the United States. They account for two-thirds of all sulfur dioxide emissions in the US (Pringle 16; Morgan 75). In the mid-1980’s, the United states alon... ...ain can aggravate a person's ability to breathe and may increase disease, which could lead to death (Bennet) In conclusion, any rain with a pH level lower than 5.6 are classified as acid rain. Acid rain is made when sulfur dioxides mix with nitrogen oxides to form acids. The acids then can come back down out of the atmosphere in either a dry or a wet form. Both of these have proven devastating to both aquatic animals and forests. Billions of dollars have been spent to correct and try to fix what acid rain had done to buildings and monuments. Acid rain also has its toll on the health of us humans. The food you eat could be contaminated with toxins due to acid rain, you’d never know it either. Sources: Bennet, Mark. â€Å"Acid Rain† 2-25-00. Online. Internet. 1-17-96 Available WWW: http://www.soton.ac.uk/~engenvir/enviroment/air/acid.home.html Durham, Jack. Acid Rain: A Student’s First Sourcebook. Diane Publishing Co.: 1994. Morgan, Sally. Acid Rain. Franklin Watts, Incorporated 1999. Phamornsuwana, Sam. â€Å"Effects of Acid Rain† 2-24-00. Online. Internet. 1-5-99 Available WWW: http://www.epa.gov/acidrain/effects.html Pringle, Laurence. Rain of Troubles. Macmillan Publishing Co.: 1988.

Saturday, August 17, 2019

Freemark Abbey Winery Essay

1. Construct the decision tree for William Jaeger. 2. What should he do? Jaeger should choose to harvest later and wait for the storm. If the storm does come but destroys the grapes, he can decide whether to bottle wine or not to protect winery’s reputation. In either way, he will gain higher revenues from harvesting later than harvesting immediately: EV of â€Å"Do not harvest & Bottling†: $39240 EV of â€Å"Do not harvest & Not bottling†: $39240-$12000*0.6*0.5=$35640 EV of â€Å"Harvest†: $34200 If the winery’s reputation is of great importance for long term profitability, he should choose to sell the wine in bulk, or sell the grapes directly to avoid impairing reputation. Besides, Riesling wines contribute only about 1,000 cases of wine, and the whole winery produced about 25,000 cases of wine bottled each year. Since the Riesling takes only about 4% of winery’s total production and the decision analysis only affects a small proportion of winery revenues, an expected value approach is used (not expected utility approach). However, if Jaeger is extremely risk average or the winery could not afford any risks at that time, he could choose to harvest immediately to reduce uncertainty. 3. Incorporate the option that Jaeger can obtain perfect weather information on the path of the storm into your decision tree. Note that the type of storm remains uncertain. 4. What should he do now? And at most how much he is willing to pay for this piece of information? With perfect information of whether storm strikes or not, Jaeger should still choose to harvest later and wait for the storm. EV of â€Å"Harvest† stream: $34200 EV of â€Å"Do not harvest† stream: $39240 (no matter Jaeger decides to bottle  not-up-to-standard wine or not) When Jaeger decides to â€Å"bottling† not up-to-standard wine, EV of â€Å"Information† stream: $39240 When Jaeger decides to â€Å"not bottling† not-up-to-standard wine, EV of â€Å"Information† stream: $34200*0.5+$37200*0.5=$35700 (â€Å"Information, Storm strike, Do not harvest & Not bottling†: this option will not be chosen as its EV is $34080, smaller than EV of â€Å"Information, Storm strike & Harvest† $34200) As the option â€Å"harvest later and wait for the storm† will bring the highest revenues no matter Jaeger decides to bottle not-up-to-standard wine or not to protect reputation, he should stick to the strategy of harvesting later. Even if the perfect information is free-of-charge, and he decides to bottle not-up-to-standard wine to get more monetary returns, the expected value is the same as â€Å"do not harvest and do not gain perfect information†. If he chooses to get perfect information, and decides to not bottle not-up-to-standard wine, the expected value will be lower. Because the perfect information cannot affect his choice from an ex ante position, it is worthless and he is willing to pay for zero. In this case, the information cannot predict the storm type, so the perfect information is worthless for Jaeger. If the perfect information can predict the storm type, it is valuable and Jaeger will be willing to pay.

Friday, August 16, 2019

Nutrition †Food Essay

Thesis Statement Most of the college students have unhealthy food preferences. Topic Outline I.Influence of Media A. Calorie-dense foods are extremely rewarding to consume. B.Causes greater snack food consumption. II.Income of an individual A.Eating healthy is expensive. B.Low income individual eat and buy cheaper foods. III.Convenience A.Fast and easy access 1.Delivery services 2.Ready to eat foods a. frozen foods 1.)TV dinners 2.)shelf-stable products 3.)prepared mixes B.Saves time Food, in order to serve its purpose, should first be consumed. Under normal circumstances, food is consumed only if it is palatable enough for the consumer. It therefore becomes a great responsibility of one who prepares and serves food to make the food palatable besides being nutritious and safe. Food habits do not develop in a vacuum. Like other forms of human behavior, they are the result of many personal, cultural, social, and psychological influences (Williams, 1974). Nowadays, teenagers choose food they like without considering about it contains. Because of busy life, they choose fast food, snack which is non-nutritive over nutritive-rich ones like rice, meat, and do not care if it shortens their life, damage their health or cause many diseases. There are numerous factors that affect the food habits of each person within a culture. Some of this is the societal factor and the lifestyle factor. In societal factor, the food production and distribution system are responsible for the availability of foods which differs from region to region and country to country. Food availability influenced by the socioeconomic and political systems. On the other hand, in lifestyle, both availability and control of food at the societal level affect the lifestyle factors of individuals. These factors includes income, occupation, place of residence, regional differences, religious beliefs, health beliefs, physiological characteristics, puberty, gender, person’s state of health and lastly, the household structure and composition (Kittler & Sucher, 2004).

Thursday, August 15, 2019

Safety, Health and Environmental Risk

For most people, the words safety, health and environment risk would automatically be synonymous with occupations involved in industrial and mechanical factories, chemical labs, or construction sites. Although these factors may be more common in such work settings, the truth is safety risks and hazards also exist in a regular office or work place. The risks however, manifests in the form of biomechanical-related stress and injuries. This includes lower back injury, carpal tunnel syndrome, and repetitive strain injury among many others. Such types of physical stress can result to fatigue and pain which may then cause the worker to perform poorly and even be unproductive. This paper will discuss various types of biomechanical and ergonomics-related injuries in the workplace. It will also tackle the causes as well as their negative effects on the workers. Consequently, this paper also aims to give recommendations on how to effectively and efficiently address this problem. A regular work desk at a typical office may seem like a hazard-free and safe work environment. However, several studies showed that prolonged and sustained work posture may result to various musculoskeletal disorders. Injuries include repetitive strain injury, carpal tunnel syndrome, and cumulative trauma disorder among many others. In fact, Bureau of Labor Statistics report that cases of ergonomic disorders are now rapidly growing in figures. According to researches, occupational illnesses as well as musculoskeletal disorders increased from 18 percent in 1985 to a staggering 56 percent in 1991 (University of Maryland 2008). Today, these numbers continue to rise as more and more workers experience physical strain in the workplace. According to the Occupational Health and Safety Administration there are over 647,000 cases of work-related injuries to date. Apart from this, occupational injuries account for more than $20 billion of the workers’ compensation costs (USA Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1996). There are several types of biomechanical or ergonomic disorders. One of which is the carpal tunnel syndrome. The carpal tunnel syndrome or median neuropathy is a type of physical strain generally associated with computer workers. It is one of the most common types of work related injuries primarily because of the widespread use of computers. Reports show that about 50 percent of computer workers experience this disorder’s symptoms frequently. This condition roots from the overuse and repetitive manual activities such as typing which causes the median nerves to be compressed in the wrists. Indivuals with this condition would usually feel numbness, muscle weakness, and sometimes even pain in the hands, arms, and fingers. Some patients even feel a pronounced pain or sensations at night. As this injury progresses, the person may feel cramping and weakness in the hand. It can also lead to a decrease in grip strength. Sharp pains will also be frequent as it will cause the patient to suffer (Medicine. net, 2009). Lower back injury is another common type of musculoskeletal disorder in the work place. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, about 20 percent of occupational injuries are back injuries. Further, about a quarter of the employment compensation claims are back injury (USA Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1996). This condition is often attributed to incorrect sitting postures. Office workers are especially vulnerable to this injury primarily because they retain their sitting posture for hours. Apart from the posture, office equipments also contribute to this condition. Poorly designed chairs or computer table can highly affect the posture of the user. Sitting in such chair for long hours can easily result to lower back pains. Cumulative trauma disorder of the upper extremity is another type of ergonomics- related disorder. Similar to carpal tunnel syndrome, this condition is a result of repetitive manual work. This causes the body, such as the fingers, shoulders, and neck to feel pain. Recent researches show that cases of cumulative trauma disorder of the upper extremities have increased over the years. The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health even categorizes this condition as†one of most significant occupational health problems today†. This is due to the fact that cumulative trauma disorder of the upper extremities account for about 56 percent of work-related injuries (Melhorn 1996, p. 1264). Cumulative trauma disorder of the upper extremities, carpal tunnel syndrome, and lower back injuries are all caused by excessive physical load. In the research work entitled â€Å"Biomechanical Aspects of Work Related Musculoskeletal Disorder†, Robert Radwin et al. (2002) explained that the terms â€Å"physical load† or â€Å"load† would refer to the physical stress acting on an individual’s body (Radwin et. al. , 2002, p. 153). Similarly, physical stress is the physical quality that makes up both the internal and external factors. This includes kinetic force, kinematics, oscillatory, and thermal. Kinetic force would refer to the voluntary motions exerted against an external object such as pounding or string an object. This type of pressure would then create a strain on the tendons and ligaments in the body. An increase pressure or force would result to a greater level of stress (Radwin et. al. , 2002, p. 156). Kinematics refers to the motions or movements that position the body. An uneven or unbalanced motion could cause angular displacement. This in turn, could create stress and load on the nerves as well as in the blood vessels. Consequently, oscillatory force creates pressure and load to the body. Oscillatory or external vibrations affects the not only the musculoskeletal system but also the body’s vascular and nervous system. Temperature of thermal measurement also plays an essential role to the performance and dexterity of an individual. Long exposure to cold environment for instance, can decrease the strength as well as the sensibility of the muscle. Most of these loads are affected by external factors such as the work place, office furniture, and energy sources among many others. Biomechanical factors like motions, exertions, body position, and forces also contribute to the physical load endured by the body. (Radwin et. al. , 2002, p. 154). Musculoskeletal disorders also come from various activities, repeated and accumulated over time. Thus, individuals such as employees or workers who are exposed to as much as eight hours daily, experience work related disorders such as carpal tunnel syndrome and back injuries. This is largely because of the long and repetitive activities that are transferred through the different parts of the body which then creates an internal load ands stress on the tissues, nerves and ligaments. The combination of external and internal stress can add much stress on the ligaments and connective tissues of the body. Studies reveal that constant exposure to loads and stress can cause damage to the muscles and nerves. One way of reducing this external stress is through ergonomics. Ergonomics is the science that deals with engineering machines and equipments in order to reduce stress on the human body. At the same time, it is also intended to increase human productivity by eliminating discomfort and fatigue (Answers. com, 2009). Ergonomically designed office and workplace furniture such as work desks, tables, chairs, and computers can effectively reduce the load on the human body. According to studies, ergonomic furnishings in the workplace do not only reduce the level of stress among workers, but it also optimizes and increases productivity. Studies also reveal that there is a significant increase in efficiency levels as well as the quality of service in ergonomic-friendly companies. Employees also feel more motivated as they experience less stress and suffer fewer pains. A recent study conducted by Michael Smith and Antoinette Bayehi (2003) showed that an ergonomic controlled office increased the performance of call center workers by 50 percent. Over all, a total of 4. 87 percent of output increase was recorded among the control group (Smith and Bayehi, 2003, p. 16). Similar increase in productivity was also recorded in a research conducted in a silicon chip plant showed a 400 percent growth in productivity. This increase involves an increase in man hours as well as a decrease in work errors (Relating Productivity to Ergonomics, 2009, p. 3). Apart from productivity, studies and researches also reveal that companies who have decided to switch to ergonomically designed furnishings saved thousand of dollars in terms of compensation and insurance cost. A recent study showed that a steel company who redesigned their observation pit was able to save as much as $150,000 (Ergoweb, 2009). With such benefits, it is only fitting that companies should address their work-related problems through ergonomics. This means considering essential office equipments such as tables, chairs, and computers. An office chair for instance, plays an important part in any office environment. This is because almost all employees spend their working hours sitting in their work desks. As such, a chair’s height, width, depth, and back rest should carefully be considered. The chair’s height should be adjustable or it should measure from 16 to 20 inches. This will allow the user to comfortable place his feet flatly on the ground. When it comes to seat width, it is essential that the chair provides enough space so that the user will be able to seat comfortably. The standard width for most office chair is 17 to 20 inches. This leaves the user with enough space or room so that he or she can seat in ease (Ergonomics Safety Program, 2009). The back rest is also an important part of an ergonomic chair. Thus, the back rest should at least be 19 inches wide. Also, the chair should have a lumbar support that adapts to the curvature of the user’s back. An arm arrest should also be present as this will allow the user’s shoulder and arms to relax. Other factors such as the swivel function and the seat material must also be considered. The swivel function will allow the user to move around in his or her work desk with ease and comfort. Likewise, the chair’s material should be soft enough so that the worker will be able to seat and work comfortably. The office desk or table is an office furniture that requires to be ergonomically designed. Along with the chair, the work desk is used by most office employees for long number of hours. Therefore, it is important that the work desk allows the users to frequently stretch in order to prevent muscle cramps and pain. The table’s height should be at least 23 to 33 inches. An adjustable table is also recommended so that the user’s forearms are parallel to the floor. Similarly, the work space should provide enough leg space in order for the user to come close to the desk as possible (Ergonomics Safety Program, 2009). The work desk should also have enough room for the user to work properly. A writing surface of about 16 to 20 inches should be provided. Document holders and drawers are also necessary. Material-wise, it is important for the work desk to have a matte finish. This will eliminate the glare from the computer. Desks with rounded corners are also recommended in order to prevent the arms or wrist from coming in contact with square or sharp edges. The positioning of the computer in the work desk is equally significant. The computer monitor should be placed directly in front of the user. This means that the top of the screen must be parallel to the user’s eyes. Apart from this, the monitor should be positioned in such a way that there is very minimal reflection and glare (Ergonomics Safety Program, 2009). The computer keyboard on the other hand, should be placed in such a way that the user will be able to reach it without extending his upper arm. The forearms of should also be aligned floor so that the wrists will not bend while typing. This can be addressed by selecting a keyboard that can be adjusted and tilted. When typing, the arms should hang loose or it should rest comfortably in the desk to prevent the muscles in the shoulders from cramping (Daniels, 1996). Likewise, the computer mouse must be placed at the same area as the keyboard. This means that the click button of the mouse is aligned properly with the keyboards. Utilizing a mouse tray with trackballs can permit the user to use the mouse with ease and comfort. This will also allow the wrist to relax while staying in a neutral position (Daniel, 1996). Although ergonomically designed work equipments can reduce the risks of occupational injuries and disorders, it is still important to remember that this alone, cannot make up for bad practice. Employees and workers must also be aware of the proper measures in order to reduce stress and injury. One way of doing this is to educate the employees about the seriousness and risks of office-related injuries. This can be done through seminars and workshops about office and workplace safety. Memos and reminders about work place safety should also be frequently posted in the workplace. Distributing fliers and brochures about ergonomics-related injuries can also help spread awareness. At the same time, the management should also set an example to the employees by following all the safety measures. Informing the employees about the different consequences as well as the benefits of this issue will allow them to be aware about this looming workplace problem. More importantly, this will encourage the employees to take the proper measures to prevent work-related injuries from happening.

Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Demand Forecasting and Production Planning

ScienceAsia 27 (2001) : 271-278 Demand Forecasting and Production Planning for Highly Seasonal Demand Situations: Case Study of a Pressure Container Factory Pisal Yenradeea,*, Anulark Pinnoib and Amnaj Charoenthavornyingb a Industrial Engineering Program, Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Thammasat University, Patumtani 12121, Thailand. b Industrial Systems Engineering Program, School of Advanced Technologies, Asian Institute of Technology, P. O. Box 4, Klong Luang, Patumtani 12120, Thailand. * Corresponding author, E-mail: [email  protected] tu. ac. th Received 24 May 2001 Accepted 27 Jul 2001 ABSTRACT This paper addresses demand forecasting and production planning for a pressure container factory in Thailand, where the demand patterns of individual product groups are highly seasonal. Three forecasting models, namely, Winter’s, decomposition, and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), are applied to forecast the product demands. The results are compared with those obtained by subjective and intuitive judgements (which is the current practice). It is found that the decomposition and ARIMA models provide lower forecast errors in all product groups. As a result, the safety stock calculated based on the errors of these two models is considerably less than that of the current practice. The forecasted demand and safety stock are subsequently used as inputs to determine the production plan that minimizes the total overtime and inventory holding costs based on a fixed workforce level and an available overtime. The production planning problem is formulated as a linear programming model whose decision variables include production quantities, inventory levels, and overtime requirements. The results reveal that the total costs could be reduced by 13. % when appropriate forecasting models are applied in place of the current practice. KEYWORDS: demand forecasting, highly seasonal demand, ARIMA method, production planning, linear programming, pressure container factory. INTRODUCTION Most manufacturing companies in developing countries determine product demand forecasts and production plans using subjective and intuitive judgments. This may be one factor that leads to production inefficiency. An accuracy of the demand forecast significantly affects safety stock and inventory levels, inventory holding costs, and customer service levels. When the demand is highly seasonal, it is unlikely that an accurate forecast can be obtained without the use of an appropriate forecasting model. The demand forecast is one among several critical inputs of a production planning process. When the forecast is inaccurate, the obtained production plan will be unreliable, and may result in over- or understock problems. To avoid them, a suitable amount of safety stock must be provided, which requires additional investment in inventory and results in an increased inventory holding costs. In order to solve the above-mentioned problems, systematic demand forecasting and production planning methods are proposed in this paper. A case study of a pressure container factory in Thailand is presented to demonstrate how the methods can be developed and implemented. This study illustrates that an improvement of demand forecasts and a reduction of total production costs can be achieved when the systematic demand forecasting and production planning methods are applied. The demand forecasting and production planning methods are proposed in the next section. The background of the case study, including, products, production process, and the forecasting and production planning procedures being used in the factory, are briefly described in Section 3. The detailed analyses of the forecasting methods and the production planning method are explained in Section 4 and Section 5, respectively. Finally, the discussion and conclusion are presented in Section 6. 272 ScienceAsia 27 (2001) P ROPOSED D EMAND F ORECASTING PRODUCTION PLANNING METHODS AND The proposed demand forecasting and production planning methods are depicted in a step-by-step fashion in Fig. . Most factories produce a variety of products that can be categorized into product groups or families. Individual products in the same product group generally have some common characteristics. For example, they may have the same demand pattern and a relatively stable product mix. As a result, it is possible to forecast the aggregate demand of the product group first, and then disaggregate it in to the demand of individual products. Since the forecast of the aggregate demand is more accurate than that of the individual demand1, it is initially determined in Step 1. Then the demands of individual products are determined in Step 2 by multiplying the aggregate demand with the corresponding product mix that is normally known and quite constant. Since the demand forecasts are always subject to forecast errors, safety stocks are provided to avoid stock-out problems. Based on the standard deviation of the forecast errors and the required service level, the safety stocks for individual products are determined in Step 3. Production planning decisions are so complicated and important that they should not be subjectively and intuitively made. Consequently, an appropriate production planning model should be formulated to determine the optimal decisions. With this model, its parameters, eg, demand forecasts, safety stocks, holding cost, overtime cost, machine capacity, inventory capacity, and available regular time and overtime, are entered or updated (Step 4). In step 5, the optimal decisions regarding the production quantities, inventory levels, and regular production time and overtime for each product in each production stage are obtained by solving the production planning model. Step 6 indicates that only the optimal production plan of the current month will be implemented. After one month has elapsed, the demand forecasts and the production plan will be revised (by repeating Steps 1 to 5) according to a rolling horizon concept. BACKGROUND OF THE CASE STUDY The pressure container factory manufactures 15 products, ranging from 1. 25 to 50 kg of the capacity of pressurized gas. The products are divided into eight product groups, namely, Group 1 to Group 8. The first six groups have only two components, â€Å"head† and â€Å"bottom†, while the last two groups have three components, â€Å"head†, â€Å"bottom†, and â€Å"body†. The production process can be divided into five stages as shown in Fig. 2. Stage 3 is only required to produce the products having three components (ie, those in Groups 7 and 8). Stage 4, the circumference welding, is found to be a bottleneck stage due to its long processing time. Presently monthly demand forecasts are subjectively determined by the Marketing Department based on past sales and expected future market conditions. No systematic method is used in forecasting. Using these forecasts and other constraints, such as availability of raw materials, equipment, and production capacity, the monthly production plan for a three-month period is intuitively determined without considering any cost factor. This results in inaccurate demand forecasts and, subsequently, an inefficient production plan. Stage 1 Blanking 1) Forecast the monthly demands of each product group throughout the planning horizon of 12 months 2) Determine the demand for each individual product 3) Determine the safety stock for each individual product Stage 2 Forming of bottom and head Stage 3 Forming of body 4) Update the parameters in the production planning model Stage 4 Circumference welding 5) Run the planning model to obtain the optimal planning dicisions ) Roll the plan by repeating Steps 1 to 5 after one month has elapsed Stage 5 Finishing Fig 1. Proposed forecasting and planning steps. Fig 2. The production process to manufacture a pressure container. ScienceAsia 27 (2001) 273 FORECASTING METHODS Steps 1, 2, and 3 of the proposed forecasting and planning process are discussed in detail in this section. Firstly, the aggregate demand forecasts of eight product groups throughout the planning horizon of 12 mont hs will be determined. Secondly, the demand forecasts of the product groups will be disaggregated into those of individual product. Thirdly, the safety stocks of individual product will be calculated based on the forecast error. Aggregate Demand Forecasts of Product Groups The typical demand pattern of each product group is seasonal. As an example, Fig. 3 shows the demand pattern of Product Group 3. Thus, three forecasting models that are suitable for making seasonal demand forecasts are considered. They are Winter’s, decomposition and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. 2-5 Because of their simplicity, the Winter’s and decomposition models are initially used to forecast the aggregate demand of each product group. If the Winter’s and decomposition models are inadequate (ie, the forecast errors are not random), the ARIMA model which is more complicated and perhaps more efficient will be applied. The Winter’s model has three smoothing parameters that significantly affect the accuracy of the forecasts. These parameters are varied at many levels using a computer program to determine a set of parameters that give the least forecast errors. There are two types of the decomposition model, namely, multiplicative and additive types. The former is selected since the demand pattern shows that the trend and seasonal components are dependent. The forecast errors of the Winter’s and decomposition models are presented in Table 1. Based on the calculated mean square error (MSE) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), it is seen that the decomposition model has lower Original Series (x 1000) 16 forecast errors in all product groups than the Winter’s model. Thus, it is reasonable to conclude that the decomposition model provides better demand forecasts than the other. One way to check whether the forecasting model is adequate is to evaluate the randomness of the forecast errors. The auto-correlation coefficient functions (ACFs) of the errors from the decomposition model for several time lags at the significant level of 0. 05 of each product group are determined. The ACFs of Groups 1 and 3 are presented as examples in Fig. 4 and 5, respectively. The ACFs of Groups 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8 are similar to those of Group 1 in Table 1. Forecast errors of the Winter’s and decomposition models. MSE Products MAPE (%) Winter’s Decomposition Winter’s Decomposition 9,879,330 4,363,290 2,227,592 4,507,990 10,039,690 574,108 636,755 883,811 36. 14 48. 94 24. 25 30. 08 18. 80 53. 86 61. 99 46. 52 26. 97 31. 86 15. 97 23. 4 13. 14 34. 80 34. 45 28. 76 Group 1 16,855,149 Group 2 8,485,892 Group 3 5,433,666 Group 4 6,035,466 Group 5 23,030,657 Group 6 1,690,763 Group 7 2,034,917 Group 8 1,884,353 Estimated Autocorrelations 1 0. 5 coefficient 0 -0. 5 -1 0 4 8 lag 12 16 20 Fig 4. ACFs of the residuals from the decomposition model for Group 1. Estimated Autocorrel ations 1 0. 5 16 demand 3 coefficient 0 8 -0. 5 4 -1 0 0 10 20 30 time index 40 50 60 0 4 8 lag 12 16 20 Fig 3. Actual demand of Group 3. Fig 5. ACFs of the residuals from the decomposition model for Group 3. 274 ScienceAsia 27 (2001) Fig 4, while those of Groups 2 and 3 are similar. It can be seen from Fig. 4 that the ACFs of all lags are within the upper and lower limits, meaning that the errors are random. However, the ACF of lag 1 in Fig. 5 exceeds the upper limit. This indicates that auto-correlations do exist in the errors and that the errors are not random. From the ACFs, we can conclude that the decomposition model is adequate for forecasting the demands of Groups 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8, but inadequate for forecasting those of Groups 2 and 3. Therefore, the ARIMA model is applied to Groups 2 and 3. From the original time series of the demand of Group 3 (in Fig. 3), and the ACFs of its original series (in Fig. ), it can be interpreted that the original series has a trend, and a high value of ACF of lag 12 indicates the existence of seasonality. 2 Hence, a non-seasonal first-difference to remove the trend and a seasonal first-difference to remove the strong seasonal spikes in the ACFs are tested. Fig. 7 shows the ACFs of the ARIMA (p,1,q)(P,1,Q) 12 model afte r applying the first difference. The nonseasonal plot indicates that there is an exponential decay and one significant ACF of lag 2. Thus, the AR(1) and MA(1) process denoted by ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,1,0)12 is identified. The ACFs of the residuals after applying this ARIMA model shown in Fig. reveals that there is a high value of ACF of lag 12. Therefore, the AR(1) and MA(1) process for the seasonal part or ARIMA (1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 can be identified. The ACFs of the residuals generated from this model are shown in Fig. 9. Since all ACFs are within the two significant limits, the ARIMA (1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model is adequate. Using the Statgraphic program, the model coefficients can be determined. The demand forecast for Group 3 is presented in Eq. 1. Ft = 1. 197 X t ? 1 ? 0. 197 X t ? 2 + 0. 54408 X t ? 12 ? 0. 65126 X t ? 13 + 0. 10718 X t ? 14 + 0. 45592 X t ? 24 ? 0. 54574 X t ? 25 + 0. 08982 X t ? 26 ? 1. 6699et ? 1 ? 0. 7154et ? 12 + 0. 76332et ? 13 + 29. 34781 (1) where Ft is the demand fo recast for period t Xt is the actual demand for period t et is the forecast error for period t Similarly, the forecasting model for Group 2 is ARIMA (3,0,0)(3,0,0). 12 The demand forecast of Group 2 is presented in Eq. 2. Estimated Autocorrelations for Original Series 1 Estimated Residual ACF 1 0. 5 0. 5 coefficient coefficient 0 0 -0. 5 -0. 5 -1 0 5 10 lag 15 20 25 -1 0 5 10 lag 15 20 25 Fig 6. ACFs of the actual demand for Group 3. Fig 8. ACFs of the residuals of ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,1,0)12 model for Group 3. Estimated Residual ACF 1 Estimated Autocorrelations for 1 Nonseasonal Differences 1 Seasonal Differences 1 0. 5 0. 5 coefficient coefficient 0 0 -0. 5 -0. 5 -1 0 5 10 lag 15 20 25 -1 0 5 10 lag 15 20 25 Fig 7. ACFs after first differencing for Group 3. Fig 9. ACFs of the residuals of ARIMA (1,1,1)(1,1,1)12 model for Group 3. ScienceAsia 27 (2001) 275 Ft = 0. 36951X t? 1 + 0. 30695X t? 2 – 0. 18213X t? 3 + 0. 20132 X t? 12 ? 0. 07439 X t? 13 ? 0. 06180 X 14 + 0. 03667 X t? 15 ? 0. 03325X t? 24 + 0. 01228 X t? 25 + 0. 01021X t? 26 ? 0. 00606 X t? 27 + 0. 68660 X t? 36 ? 0. 25371X t? 37 ? 0. 21075X t? 38 + 0. 12505X t? 39 + 354. 4515 2) The forecast errors of the decomposition and ARIMA models for Groups 2 and 3 are presented in Table 2. It reveals that the ARIMA model has lower Table 2. Forecast errors of the decomposition and ARIMA models. MSE Products Group 2 Group 3 Decomposition ARIMA 4,363,290 2,227,592 3,112,974 1,235,788 MAPE (%) Decomposition ARIMA 31. 86 15. 97 29. 05 13. 18 MSE and MAPE than t he decomposition model. Therefore, the ARIMA model should be used to forecast the aggregate demands of Groups 2 and 3. For other product groups, however, the decomposition model should be used because it is more simple yet still adequate. The comparison of the demand forecast errors obtained from the forecasting models and those from the current practice of the marketing department (as presented in Table 3) indicates that the errors of the forecasting models are substantially lower than those of the current practice. Demand Forecasts of Individual Products The demand forecast of product i for period t, dit, is obtained by multiplying the aggregate demand forecast of the product group (obtained from the previous steps) by the corresponding product mix (as presented in Table 4). Table 3. Forecast errors of the current practice, decomposition, and ARIMA models. MSE Product Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Group 6 Group 7 Group 8 Current practice Decomposition 16,672,342 4,394,693 4,988,962 4,754,572 19,787,102 795,621 849,420 1,060,301 9,879,330 4,507,990 10,039,690 574,108 636,755 883,811 ARIMA 3,112,974 1,235,788 MAPE (%) Current practice Decomposition 30. 58 34. 68 23. 50 25. 73 17. 54 42. 70 38. 36 37. 93 26. 97 23. 24 13. 14 34. 80 34. 45 28. 76 ARIMA 29. 05 13. 18 – Table 4. Product mix. Product group Product 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 0. 17 0. 20 0. 26 0. 23 0. 14 1. 0 0. 53 0. 47 0. 65 0. 35 1. 0 1. 0 1. 0. 3 0. 7 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 276 ScienceAsia 27 (2001) Calculation of Safety Stock The safety stocks of finished products must be provided to protect against stock-out problems due to inaccurate demand forecasts. Based on the forecast errors obtained from the demand forecasting models, the amount of the safety stock is calculated using the following formula. 12 SSit = sf * ? j * ? ij (3) PRODUCTION PLANNING METHO D The production planning model is developed by initially defining decision variables and parameters, and then mathematically formulating the production planning model. Step 4 of the method requires that the model parameters be estimated and entered into the model. The model is solved for the optimal solution (Step 5). Step 6 recommends that the model parameters are updated, and the model is solved again after one planning period has passed. The production planning problem of the factory under consideration belongs to the class of multistage, multi-item, capacitated production planning model. The models in this class have been discussed extensively in. 6-11 They differ in assumptions, objectives, constraints, and solution methods. Our production planning model is a modification of the multi-stage, multi-product model discussed in Johnson and Montgomery. 6 Its objective is to minimize the total overtime and inventory holding costs. Costs of laying off and rehiring are not considered because laying off and rehiring are not allowed according to the labor union regulation. Since the production cost is time-invariant and all demands must be satisfied, the regular time production cost is thus not included in the objective function. Relevant parameters and decision variables are defined as follows: Parameters : hik = Holding cost per unit of product i at stage k (baht/unit/period) co = Cost per man-hour of overtime labor (baht/man-hour) dit = Demand forecast of product i for period t (units) aik = Processing time for one unit of product i at stage k (hours/unit) (rm)kt = Total available regular time excluding preventive maintenance and festival days at stage k for period t (man-hours) (om)kt = Total available overtime excluding preventive maintenance and festival days at stage k for period t (man-hours) W = Warehouse capacity (units) SSit = Safety stock of product i for period t (units) Iik0 = Initial inventory of product i at stage k (units) N = Total number of products (15 products) T = Total number of periods in the planning horizon (12 periods) K = Total number of stages (5 stages) where SSit = Required safety stock level of product i for period t sf = Safety factor = 1. 64 for a required service level of 95 % of the standard normal distribution ? j = Standard deviation of forecast errors of Group j. ?ij = Product mix of Product i in Group j. Since the errors of the recommended demand forecasting models are lower than those of the current practice, it is clear that SSit based on the use of the models must be lower than that determined from the current practice (assuming that the service levels of both cases are the same). Table 5 presents the required safety stocks of the current practice and the recommended forecasting models at 95 % service level. Table 5. Required safety stock of current practice and of recommended forecasting models. Safety stock (units) Product 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Current practice 1,138 1,339 1,741 1,540 937 3,438 1,941 1,722 2,324 1,252 7,295 1,463 1,511 507 1,182 Recommended forecasting models 887 1,043 1,356 1,200 730 2,905 979 868 2,274 1,224 5,258 1,245 1,323 460 1,072 ScienceAsia 27 (2001) 277 Decision variables: Xikt = Quantity of product i to be produced at stage k in period t (units) Iikt = Inventory of product i at stage k at the end of period t (units) Rkt = Regular time used at stage k during period t (man-hours) Okt = Overtime used at stage k during period t (man-hours) LP model: Minimize Z = ? ? ? hik Iikt + ? ? co Okt , (4) i =1 k =1 t =1 k =1 t =1 N K T K T Eq. 7 represents the material balance constraint in Stage 3, which produces the body of threecomponent products, for Products 13, 14, and 15. Constraint (13) must be included since the finished products are very bulky and require significant warehouse space that is quite limited. Work-inprocess inventory does not require significant storage space because it can be stacked. The non-negativity constraint (16) ensures that shortages of work-inprocess inventory do not occur. Input Parameters The initial inventory of product i at stage k, Iik0, is collected from real data of work-in-process or finished good inventories on the factory floor at the beginning of the planning horizon. The inventory holding cost of product i at stage k, hik, is estimated by assuming that the annual inventory holding cost is 25% of the cost per unit of the product at the respective production stage. Since the cost per unit is constant over the planning horizon, the annual inventory holding cost is time-invariant. The factory has enough space in the warehouse to store not more than 40,000 units of finished products. The total available regular time, (rm)kt, is estimated based on the fact that the factory is normally operated 16 hours a day and six days a week, and the total available overtime, (om)kt, is calculated by assuming that the overtime could not be more than six hours a day. The overtime cost, co, is assumed to be constant throughout the planning horizon, and is estimated to be 60 Baht per man-hour. After all related parameters have been estimated and entered into the planning model, the optimal values of all decision variables are calculated using the LINGO software. The computation time takes less than one minute on a Pentium PC. Results of the Production Planning Models with Different Levels of Safety Stock In this section, two production planning models with different safety stock levels (as shown in Table 5) are solved to determine the total cost savings when the recommended forecasting models are applied in place of the current practice. The inventory holding, overtime, and total costs of both models are presented in Table 6. Based on the optimal total cost of the current practice (4,078,746 Baht per year) and the optimal total cost of the recommended forecasting models (3,541,772 Baht per year), the total cost saving is 536,974 Baht per year, or 13. 2 %. It can be also seen Subject to – Finished product requirement constraints I i 5,t? 1 + X i 5t ? I i 5t = dit – ? i, t ; k = 5, (5) Material balance between stages constraints ? i, t ; k = 4, (6) (7) ? i, t ; k = 2, (8) ? i, t ; k = 1, (9) I i 4 ,t? 1 + X i 4 t ? I i 4 t = X i 5t I i 3,t? 1 + X i 3t ? I i 3t = X i 4 t ?t ; i = 13, 14, 15; k = 3, I i 2,t? 1 + X i 2t ? I i 2t = X i 4 t I i1,t? 1 + X i1t ? I i1t = X i 2t Capacity constraints ? aik X ikt ? Rkt + Okt i= 1 N ?k , t , (10) – Available regular and overtime constraints. Rkt ? (rm) kt Okt ? ( om) kt ?k , t , ? k , t , (11) (12) – Inventory capacity of finished product constraints. ? I ikt ? W i= 1 N ?t ; k = 5, (13) – Safety stock of finished product constraints. I ikt ? SS it ?i, t ; k = 5, (14) – Non-negativity conditions X ikt ? 0 I ikt ? 0 ?i, k , t , ? i, t ; k = 1, 2, 3, 4 (15) (16) 278 ScienceAsia 27 (2001) Table 6. Comparison of the optimal costs of production planning models. Optimal costs (Baht/year) Model based on the current practice Inventory holding cost Overtime cost Total cost 2,117,051 1,961,695 4,078,746 Model based on recommended forecasting models 1,775,552 1,766,220 3,541,772 REFERENCES 1. Nahmias S (1993) Production and Operations Analysis, 2nd ed, Irwin, New York. 2. Vandaele W (1983) Applied Time Series and Box-Jenkins Models, Academic Press, New York. 3. Winters PR (1960) Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Average. Management Science 6(4), 324-42. 4. Box GE and Jenkins GM (1970) Time Series Analysis, Forecasting, and Control, Holden-Day, San Francisco. 5. Makridakis S Wheelwright SC and McGee VE (1983) Forecasting Methods and Applications, 2nd ed, John Wiley & Sons, New York. 6. Johnson LA and Montgomery DC (1974) Operations Research in Production Planning, Scheduling, and Inventory Control, John Wiley & Sons, New York. 7. Bullington P McClain J and Thomas J (1983) Mathematical Programming Approaches to Capacity Constrained MRP Systems: Review, Formulation, and Problem Reduction. Management Science 29(10). 8. Gabbay H (1979) Multi-Stage Production Planning. Management Science 25(11), 1138-48. 9. Zahorik A Thomas J and Trigeiro W (1984) Network Programming Models for Production Scheduling in MultiStage, Multi-Item Capacitated Systems. Management Science 30(3), 308-25. 10. Lanzanuer V (1970) Production and Employment Scheduling in Multi-Stage Production Systems. Naval Research Logistics Quarterly 17(2), 193-8. 11. Schwarz LB (ed) (1981) Multi-level Production and Inventory Control Systems: Theory and Practice, North-Holland, New York. 12. Tersine RJ (1994) Principles of Inventory and Materials Management, 4th ed, Prentice Hall, New Jersey. that the optimal inventory holding cost and overtime cost in the production planning model based on the recommended forecasting models are almost equal which indicates that the model can efficiently achieve a tradeoff between both costs. Normally, the optimal decisions in the first planning period will be implemented. After the first period has passed, the new forecasts will be determined, and the model parameters will be updated. The updated model is solved again to determine the optimal decisions in the current period. This is called a rolling horizon concept. However, the details and results of this step are not shown in this paper. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION The ARIMA model provides more reliable demand forecasts but it is more complicated to apply than the decomposition model. Therefore the ARIMA model should be used only when the decomposition model is inadequate. When compared against those of the current practice of the company, the errors of our selected models are considerably lower. This situation can lead to substantial reductions in safety stocks. Consequently, the lower safety stocks result in decreased inventory holding and overtime costs. The results of the production planning model are of great value to the company since the model can determine the optimal overtime work, production quantities, and inventory levels that yield the optimal total overtime and holding costs. The production planning method is more suitable than the existing one that does not consider any cost factors. Moreover, it has been proven that an application of appropriate forecasting techniques can reduce total inventory holding and overtime costs significantly. In conclusion, this paper demonstrates that an improvement in demand forecasting and production planning can be achieved by replacing subjective and intuitive judgments by the systematic methods.

The Devil in the White City Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

The Devil in the White City - Essay Example many as 200) and the World Fair that was going on at the time in the same city produces a vivid picture of America that presents both its best and its worst sides. The two stories, of creation and destruction, come together to create a whole: The so-called Gilded Age of American history was indeed a time of remarkable productivity. After the damage and chaos of the civil war a sudden spurt of energy occurred throughout America, but especially in Northern and mid-Western cities such as Chicago. An echo of the English Industrial Revolution that had transformed Britain a century before, American industry blossomed, and with it is cities. However, as Larson suggests, along with the growth of great cities with populations measured in the millions comes the anonymity, strangeness and loneliness associated with them. Holmes was both a product of these tendencies, and also took advantage of them. His comments regarding his own moral state, while melodramatic, may also encapsulate the great battle that was occurring between Labor (ie. individual human beings) and Capital (the great productive force) that was producing highly efficient, but somehow inhuman cities: While obviously self-serving, Holmes brings up an important factor – the sense of powerlessness within the modern cities as the battle between Labor and Capital played out. The idea of creation is vital within the book, in the sense of an industrial construction of various worlds that both clash with and yet strangely compliment one another. Thus, Daniel Burnham struggles against an unforgiving landscape (swamps) and government bureaucracy to see his dream rise above the city; and all the while Homes is building (and then secretly adapting) his torture and murder house. The fact that Holmes was a Doctor of Medicine adds a further layer of irony to the book. A person trained to help and cure people, who one might expect would be least likely to actually enjoy doing the opposite, enjoys doing just that.